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ICAP PRC-2 · QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS FOR BUSINESS · CHAPTER 6

Discounted Cash Flows

Key Definitions · Core Concept · Key Rules & Principles · Formula Zone — Annuities & Perpetuities · Formula Zone — NPV, IRR & Payback · Step-by-step Methods · Different Cases / Scenarios

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1

Chapter Overview

🧭

Your visual roadmap through the chapter

Annuities & Perpetuities

Regular equal payments — ordinary, due, and forever

Net Present Value

PV of inflows − PV of outflows; accept if positive

Internal Rate of Return

The discount rate at which NPV = 0

Payback Period

Time to recover the initial investment

Discounted cash flow (DCF) evaluates whether proposed investments are financially worthwhile, using annuities, perpetuities, NPV, IRR and payback period techniques.

DCF techniques are the standard tools for capital-investment decisions — comparing project returns against the cost of capital and each other.

Apply annuity/perpetuity formulas; compute NPV and accept/reject a project; estimate IRR by interpolation; calculate payback and discounted payback period.

2

Key Definitions

📘

Source-based terminology, exam-ready

Annuity

A series of regular periodic payments of equal amount — a constant cash flow for a given number of time periods.

Key word: equal, regular, finite

Ordinary Annuity / Annuity Due

Ordinary: payments in arrears (end of each period). Due: payments in advance (beginning of each period).

Key word: end vs start

Perpetuity

A constant annual cash flow "forever" — an annuity in which the cash flows continue into the long-term future indefinitely.

Key word: forever

Sinking Fund

Setting aside a fixed sum at regular intervals to achieve a specific target sum at a future point in time.

Key word: save toward a target

Net Present Value (NPV)

The difference between the present value of cash inflows and the present value of cash outflows over a project's life.

Key word: PV in − PV out

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

The discount rate that makes a project's NPV exactly equal to zero.

Key word: NPV = 0 rate

Payback Period

The length of time it takes for an investment's cash inflows to recover its initial cost.

Key word: time to break even

Discounted Payback Period

Like payback period, but the future cash flows are discounted to present value first, accounting for the time value of money.

Key word: payback, discounted

3

Core Concept

🎯

Explained in exam-oriented language

CONCEPT → Annuities

MEANING

A stream of equal payments; can be valued as a future sum (FV) or a present value (PV).

PURPOSE

Avoid discounting/compounding each payment individually — use one annuity factor instead.

APPLICATION

Loan installments, savings plans, sinking funds, project cash flows.

CONCEPT → NPV / IRR

MEANING

NPV measures value created at a given cost of capital; IRR finds the rate at which value created is zero.

PURPOSE

Decide whether a project is worth undertaking.

APPLICATION

Capital budgeting / investment appraisal decisions.

4

Key Rules & Principles

📏

Every source rule, exam-ready

RULE 1 Recognising annuity due

If payments start now/immediately, or the first payment is at the beginning of the first period, it is an annuity due

RULE 4 NPV decision rule

NPV > 0 → accept (value created)

NPV = 0 → break-even

NPV < 0 → reject (value destroyed)

RULE 2 Annuity due vs ordinary relationship

Sum (FV) of annuity due = (1+i) × sum of ordinary annuity

PV of annuity due = (1+i) × PV of ordinary annuity

Annuity due is always the larger figure, all else equal

RULE 5 IRR decision rule

IRR > required rate of return → accept

IRR = required rate → break-even (NPV = 0)

IRR < required rate → reject

RULE 3 Perpetuities

Sum (FV) of a perpetuity cannot be determined (it is infinite)

PV of an ordinary perpetuity = R ÷ i

PV of a perpetuity due = R + (R ÷ i)

RULE 6 Payback period

A shorter payback period is generally preferred

Ignores the time value of money, and any cash flows after payback — use discounted payback to correct for time value

5

Formula Zone — Annuities & Perpetuities

🧮

Every formula supported by the source text

SUM (FV) OF ORDINARY ANNUITY

So = R [ (1+i)n − 1 ] ÷ i

R=periodic payment, i=rate per period, n=number of payments; payments at end of each period.

SUM (FV) OF ANNUITY DUE

SD = (1+i) × So

Payments at the start of each period; always > sum of ordinary annuity.

PV OF ORDINARY ANNUITY

Po = R [ 1 − (1+i)−n ] ÷ i

Used for loan repayments and valuing a stream of receipts/payments in arrears.

PV OF ANNUITY DUE

PD = (1+i) × Po

Always > PV of ordinary annuity, all else equal.

PV OF PERPETUITY (ORDINARY)

Po = R ÷ i

Sum (FV) of a perpetuity cannot be determined.

PV OF PERPETUITY DUE

PD = R + (R ÷ i)

The first payment (R) is received immediately, plus the PV of the remaining ordinary perpetuity.

5

Formula Zone — NPV, IRR & Payback

🧮

Every formula supported by the source text

NET PRESENT VALUE

NPV = PV of cash inflows − PV of cash outflows

Discount each period's cash flow at the cost of capital, then sum. Initial investment is a negative (outflow) at year 0.

IRR BY INTERPOLATION

IRR = A% + [ NPVA ÷ (NPVA − NPVB) ] × (B−A)%

NPVA at rate A% should ideally be positive, NPVB at rate B% negative, for best accuracy.

PAYBACK PERIOD (EVEN CASH FLOWS)

Payback = Cost of Investment ÷ Average Annual Cash Flow

For uneven cash flows, accumulate cash flows year by year until the investment is recovered.

DISCOUNTED PAYBACK PERIOD

PV of Cash Flow = Cash Flow ÷ (1+i)n

Accumulate discounted cash flows year by year until they cover the initial investment.

6

Calculation Roadmap

🗺️

General path for any discounted cash flow question

1· Read Question

List every cash flow and its timing

2· Identify Type

Annuity, perpetuity, NPV, IRR, or payback?

3· Select Formula

Ordinary or due? Even or uneven cash flows?

4· Substitute

Put known values into the formula

5· Calculate & Interpret

Solve, apply decision rule, state answer

7

Step-by-step Methods

🪜

Kept separate — do not mix methods

METHOD A · Sum (FV) or PV of an Annuity

  1. 1Identify R, i (per period) and n
  2. 2Decide ordinary (end of period) or due (start of period)
  3. 3Substitute into the matching Sn or P formula
  4. 4If "due", multiply the ordinary result by (1+i)

METHOD D · Net Present Value (NPV)

  1. 1List every cash flow by year, including the initial investment (negative)
  2. 2Discount each year's cash flow at the cost of capital
  3. 3Sum all discounted cash flows to get the NPV
  4. 4Apply the decision rule: accept if NPV > 0

METHOD B · Sinking Fund (Solve for R)

  1. 1Identify the target future sum (Sn), i and n
  2. 2Substitute into Sn = R[(1+i)ⁿ−1]÷i
  3. 3Rearrange to solve for R (the periodic saving)
  4. 4Alternative: find PV of the target, then divide by the annuity factor

METHOD E · Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

  1. 1Calculate NPV at a first discount rate, A%
  2. 2Calculate NPV at a second rate, B%, ideally giving the opposite sign
  3. 3Substitute both NPVs into the interpolation formula
  4. 4Compare the estimated IRR to the required rate of return

METHOD C · PV of a Perpetuity

  1. 1Identify R (periodic payment) and i (period rate)
  2. 2If payments are less frequent than annual (e.g. every 2 years), find the equivalent period's effective rate first
  3. 3Substitute into P=R÷i (ordinary) or P=R+(R÷i) (due)
  4. 4State the present value

METHOD F · Payback / Discounted Payback

  1. 1List cash flows by year (discount them first if using discounted payback)
  2. 2Build the cumulative cash flow, year by year
  3. 3Find the year the cumulative total turns positive
  4. 4Add the fraction of that year needed: remaining amount ÷ that year's cash flow
8

Different Cases / Scenarios

🔀

Recognise the wording, pick the right route

IF payments occur at the END of each period

→ USE ordinary annuity formulas

IF payments start NOW / immediately / at the beginning

→ USE annuity due: multiply ordinary result by (1+i)

IF the cash flow continues forever

→ USE perpetuity: P=R÷i (only PV can be found)

IF a target future sum must be reached by saving

→ USE a sinking fund: solve for R

IF NPV > 0

→ Accept the project

IF NPV < 0

→ Reject the project

IF cash flows are equal every year

→ Payback = Investment ÷ Annual Cash Flow

IF cash flows are uneven, or time value of money matters

→ USE the cumulative (discounted) cash flow method

9

Comparison Tables

⚖️

Don't confuse these!

Ordinary AnnuityAnnuity Due
Payment timingEnd of each period (in arrears)Start of each period (in advance)
Sum (FV)So = R[(1+i)ⁿ−1]÷iSD = (1+i) × So
Present ValuePo = R[1−(1+i)⁻ⁿ]÷iPD = (1+i) × Po
Net Present Value (NPV)Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
What it findsThe rupee value created at a given cost of capitalThe discount rate at which NPV = 0
Decision ruleAccept if NPV > 0Accept if IRR > required rate of return
MethodDiscount all cash flows at one given rateInterpolate between a positive and negative NPV
Payback PeriodDiscounted Payback Period
Time value of moneyIgnoredAccounted for (cash flows discounted first)
Cash flows usedRaw (undiscounted) cash flowsPV of cash flow = Cash Flow ÷ (1+i)ⁿ
ResultShorter, since money isn't discountedLonger, since future cash flows are worth less today
10

Reading Cash-flow Timelines & Tables

📌

How to interpret the source's diagrams

Cumulative cash flow timeline (payback)

Plot the running (cumulative) total below each year. The payback point is where the cumulative total crosses from negative to positive. Interpolate within that year: fraction = remaining negative balance ÷ that year's cash flow.

NPV discount-factor table

Each row is a year's cash flow, multiplied by that year's discount factor (from the rate column) to give its present value. Sum the present-value column (inflows and the negative initial outflow) to get the NPV.

Annuity factor tables

An annuity factor is the sum of the individual discount factors for a run of periods. Read it at the intersection of the correct rate column and period row, then multiply by the periodic payment (or divide the target/loan by it to find the payment).

IRR interpolation diagram

NPV is plotted against discount rate; the true relationship curves, but interpolation assumes a straight line between the two calculated NPVs to estimate where the line crosses zero (the IRR).

11

Worked Calculation Logic

✍️

Method students must reproduce in the exam

GIVEN → FORMULA → SUBSTITUTION → CALCULATION → ANSWER

A company with a 10% cost of capital considers a project: initial payment Rs. 10,000; yields Rs. 6,000/year for 2 years. Should it be undertaken?

GIVEN: Year 0 = (10,000); Year 1 & 2 = 6,000 each; r = 10%

FORMULA: NPV = Σ (Cash Flow × Discount Factor)

SUBSTITUTION: Year 1: 6,000×1/(1.1)¹=5,456; Year 2: 6,000×1/(1.1)²=4,959

CALCULATION: NPV = −10,000 + 5,456 + 4,959 = 415

FINAL ANSWER: NPV = Rs. 415 (positive) — the project is viable and should be undertaken

12

Exam Question Patterns

📝

Annuity/perpetuity calculation — FV, PV, ordinary vs due

Sinking fund — solve for the periodic saving amount

NPV calculation — compute and apply accept/reject rule

IRR estimation — interpolate between two discount rates

Payback / discounted payback — even and uneven cash flows

Reading annuity/discount factor tables

13

Exam Traps

⚠️

⚠ WATCH OUT

  • ✗ Ordinary vs due mix-up — forgetting to multiply by (1+i) for an annuity/perpetuity due.
  • ✗ Perpetuity sum — trying to calculate a future sum for a perpetuity; only PV can be found.
  • ✗ IRR sign errors — mixing up NPVA and NPVB or their signs in the interpolation formula.
  • ✗ Payback ignoring time value of money when the question specifically asks for discounted payback.
  • ✗ Wrong cash flow sign — treating the initial investment as positive instead of a negative outflow.
14

Quick Decision Tree

🌳
QUESTION GIVEN
↓
Equal payments, or full project cash flows?
↓
Annuity/perpetuity → ordinary or
↓
due?
↓
Project → NPV, IRR, or
↓
payback?
↓
CALCULATE → APPLY DECISION RULE → FINAL ANSWER
⚡

Chapter 6 in 60 Seconds

⚡

Ordinary Sn: R[(1+i)ⁿ−1]/i Due Sn/Pn = (1+i) × ordinary

Ordinary Pn: R[1−(1+i)⁻ⁿ]/i

Perpetuity PV: R÷i NPV >0 accept, <0 reject

IRR: A%+[NPVa/(NPVa−NPVb)]×(B−A)% Payback = Investment ÷ Annual CF

Trap: "starts now" = annuity due

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All PRC-2 QAB revision notes
  1. Linear and Quadratic Equations
  2. Coordinate System and Its Application
  3. Mathematical Progression
  4. Linear Programming
  5. Financial Mathematics
  6. Discounted Cash Flows
  7. Data – Collection and Representation
  8. Statistical Measures of Data
  9. Indices
  10. Correlation and Regression
  11. Probability Concepts
  12. Probability Distributions